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Dream's Speedrunning

[S2 Maths and above - Probability]

We have an interesting situation, where a person you might know or have heard of is accused of improper conduct.

Dream, a Youtuber who used Youtube's polling system to gain in popularity among children demographics rapidly, is accused of cheating regarding his Minecraft world record speedrun.

Dream claims that he has not cheated, that his Minecraft software was not wired to increase his odds of completing the run. However, many have claimed otherwise, that his software had been unlawfully tampered with to increase the likelihood of him completing the run.

Do you believe Dream? Or do you believe the accusers?

Even with a comprehensive analysis, statistics can only increase or decrease the likelihood of something being true or false. It falls to us to assess statistics accurately before making any cursory judgments.

Given that many different types of statistical analysis points towards how unlikely it is, trusting said statistics would mean assigning blame to Dream for tampering with the device. Or, one could otherwise claim that Dream really was lucky, based on the 10 billion human second century measure. Fancy that, he's luckier than 10 billion people who did the exact same thing for 100 years.


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